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Each dot shows one of the 25316 calls we made.

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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Dan McCready is a agent and a retired Marine. 47% favorable rating; 31% unfavorable; 22% don’t apperceive

Mark Harris is a Baptist minister. 46% favorable rating; 32% unfavorable; 22% don’t apperceive

This Republican-leaning commune stretches from axial Charlotte to rural, commonly Democratic and majority atramentous areas of eastern North Carolina.

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(We polled this commune from Oct. 1-5, assuming Mr. Harris with a slight edge.)

This commune became a top-tier challenge back the Republican bounden Robert Pittenger was defeated by Mr. Harris in the Republican primary.

Mr. Harris is acutely bourgeois on cultural and amusing issues. He’s against to gay alliance and has questioned whether careers are the “healthiest pursuit” for women. In a 2014 sermon, he alleged on women to abide to their husbands.

Mr. McCready is alive as a moderate, and emphasizes his aggressive account and religious beliefs. He says he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.

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Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

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To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

Assumptions about who is activity to vote may be decidedly important in this race.

In these scenarios, academy assembly tends to be bigger for Democrats.

Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

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People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

Here, we’re weighting by age, affair registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

But weighting works alone if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

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Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

About 7 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters best carefully resembled Republicans.

Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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