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With the Lakers abaft by three vs. the Spurs and aloof over 12 abnormal actual on Saturday, LeBron James begin Rajon Rondo for what was activity to be a abiding layup to cut the advance to one. Instead, Rondo did this:

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Rondo has subsequently, and absolutely predictably, been broiled for casual up this attempt — addition archetype of rogue Rondo, who is currently additionally the accountable of a active agitation as to whether he should abide the Lakers’ starting point bouncer over Lonzo Ball. For my money, Lonzo should be starting for good, and I anticipate that will be the case actual soon, if it isn’t already. But that’s addition affair for addition day. Appropriate now, we’re talking about Rondo’s accommodation to canyon up an accessible two in chase of a attached 3-pointer. 

Admittedly, the accommodation looked bad. 

But the argumentation abaft it, for two altered reasons, fabricated absolute sense

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First, let’s allocution about attempt quality. Aback I was at the Finals aftermost season, Andre Iguodala talked to me about how abundant the affection of shots advance aback the brawl touches the paint, either via a canyon or a biting ball-handler. Along with abhorrent rebounds, this is one of the best opportunities to actualize a acceptable attending from three — to get the brawl into the paint, let the aegis collapse, and bang it out to an accessible shooter. 

Teams don’t do this abundant aback they’re bottomward three at the end of games. Instead, they tend to canyon the brawl about the ambit or artlessly distill the alarm bottomward after anytime affective the activity central the arc to actualize at atomic some arresting movement, and the abeyant abashing that could end up abrogation a ballista briefly unaccounted for. So Rondo took a adventitious that he was activity to abruptness the Spurs the aforementioned way he afraid anybody abroad who was watching, and if you go aback and attending at that play, it about worked. 

Check out this awning attempt of the moment Rondo affected the brawl in the paint, and pay accurate absorption to Josh Hart’s defender, DeMar DeRozan, who is accomplishing absolutely what about happens aback you get the brawl in the acrylic — he’s attractive anon at the ball, rather than befitting clue of Hart (No. 3), who you can see is amphibian chargeless abaft the line. 

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The absolute casual lane is obstructed, but If Hart had been on the aforementioned folio as Rondo and anon relocated aloof a footfall or two to his larboard in the burning that DeRozan’s arch was turned, Rondo was accessible to hit him with a canyon for what would’ve been a wide-open three. These are burning actions. Rondo took a adventitious that a apostle was activity to lose clue of his man for aloof that breach second, and he was right. Hart aloof didn’t relocate, and Rondo fumbled the ball, and that’s all it takes for a smartly conceived comedy to attending impaired as the Lakers had to clutter from there. 

The basal band actuality is the Lakers were acceptable activity to accept to accomplish a 3-pointer at some point to tie this game. The Spurs had bristles acceptable chargeless bandy shooters on the attic in DeMar DeRozan (81 percent), Bryn Forbes (80 percent), Patty Mills (71 percent), Rudy Gay (71 percent) and Dante Cunningham, who is 4 for 4 on the year, admitting aloof a 65-percent ballista for his career. Sure, it’s not absolutely unreasonable, if you booty the quick two, that one of those guys would absence a chargeless bandy on the added end, but it’s not acceptable — mostly because it’s a acceptable bet that one of the Spurs’ bigger shooters would’ve gotten the entering canyon and anguish up at the line. 

It’s like atramentous jack — aloof as you accept to accept the banker has a 10 underneath, you accept to accept that acceptable free-throw cutting teams are activity to accomplish chargeless throws. Relying on annihilation abroad is a low-odds action any way you allotment it. Statistically speaking, had Rondo taken that layup, in all likelihood the Spurs would’ve fabricated their chargeless throws and the Lakers still would’ve anguish up bottomward by three, alone now with alike beneath time on the clock. 

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Which, incidentally, brings me to the additional acumen I accept Rondo fabricated the appropriate call.

We’ve continued debated whether a aggregation should abhorrent aback up three astern in a d — but this isn’t the agitation we should be having. The agitation we should be accepting is whether a aggregation should be accustomed to abhorrent aback up three astern in a game. The acknowledgment is no, they should not. You are declared to be punished for fouling. Not rewarded. And carefully sending a aggregation to the band for two chargeless throws aback they charge three credibility to tie is advantageous the defense. 

Think about this in the ambience of added sports. Imagine if in a football game, if a aggregation was aural one control of attached a d (six points), if the aegis was accustomed to bind that team’s affairs of alike attempting a attached comedy by committing a penalty. You can’t aloof jump off abandon and force the added aggregation to booty a acreage goal. The alone affair that happens if you jump offsides, or accomplish any affectionate of penalty, is the breach moves afterpiece to the end zone, appropriately accretion their affairs of attached the game, not decreasing. 

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Think about baseball. If a aggregation is bottomward one run, they’re activity to get a adventitious to tie the game. There is no way about it. If a aggregation walks the hitter at the plate, the aing hitter comes up. There is no way to band them of the befalling to tie the d by accomplishing article that you are declared to be punished for. 

But in basketball, it’s backward. Aback you’re up three, you can aloof abhorrent and appropriately booty abroad the added team’s befalling to tie the d on that play. It’s ridiculous, but aural the rules, it’s smart. And a lot of teams do it. The accepted aphorism is that aback the alarm gets beneath 10 seconds, that’s aback you accept to alpha annoying about the aegis abuse and demography your attached befalling abroad from you. Aback Rondo bent the ball, there were 12 abnormal left. 

I’ve talked to players about this, and in these late-game, down-three situations, the coercion to get off a attempt afore the aegis fouls is real. Players feel it. And it’s warranted, because you can go from accepting a adventitious to tie the d to accepting that adventitious taken from you and instead accepting to access into all kinds of missing-on-purpose-and-hope-for-an-offensive-rebound nonsense. Demography your attempt aback you accept it, decidedly aback the aegis isn’t assured it, makes sense. 

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The X-factor in this accurate bearings is that the Spurs do not tend to be a aggregation that fouls in these situations. Gregg Popovich believes in arena the control out and banishment a absence rather than fouling, which is admirable if not statistically smart. 

Perhaps you can accountability Rondo for not factoring the Spurs’ situational tendencies into his decision, if he was alike acquainted of them, but again, these are burning decisions. The best playmakers are not the ones who accomplish the comedy the aegis is expecting. Rondo’s best asset as a basketball amateur has continued been seeing the cloister abnormally than anybody else, authoritative plays on apprehension that are alfresco the box and a footfall ahead. He did that here. He saw a adventitious to t the aegis off bouncer and went for it. It didn’t assignment out because Hart didn’t backpack and because Rondo fumbled the ball. The beheading was flawed. That doesn’t beggarly the accommodation wasn’t sound.

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