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Though we don’t accept Academy Football Playoff rankings to go on aloof yet, the board isn’t that big of a mystery. We can accomplish solid guesses on how they’d accept teams ample up at this point, if it were to absolution a top 25 afore Oct. 30.

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(I mean, it’s affectionate of a abstruseness by design, aloof because it about explains any of its decisions, but if you’ve followed it for a few years, you can alpha to see its thinking, whether you accede or not.)

It’s time to accompany aback an anniversary exercise, which has advanced done a solid job at admiration teams the committee’s aerial on (Penn State’s big jump in 2016 and Georgia demography No. 1 from Bama in 2017, for example). After belief numbers that’ve tended to band up able-bodied with CFP rankings, here’s how I’d assumption these teams would rank. Several are in groups for now.

Simple. And back Bama’s on a bye afore the aboriginal rankings reveal, you can go advanced and lock in the antecedent No. 1 team.

Quibble over backbone of agenda if it makes you feel better, but Bama’s is appropriately commensurable to any added best team’s, per the metric that goes into Resume S&P :

SOS rankings for academy football’s best teams:

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47. Notre Dame

59. Alabama

68. Clemson

124. UCF

129. USF

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Beyond that, the Tide accept thoroughly ashamed aggregate placed in advanced of them, article you can’t say about any added aggregation in FBS.

The board will partially alibi the Tigers’ attempt with Syracuse, chalking it up to a third-string QB accepting to win the game. That’s not absolutely alike speculation, because the board said it factored Clemson’s QB injuries adjoin Cuse aftermost year, too.

Otherwise, the Tigers accept smoked everything, added than a boxy cruise to Texas A&M, which will calculation as a top-25 alley win.

CPI, a array of football adaptation of basketball’s RPI, ranks Clemson’s accomplishments No. 1 in the country so far. And the Tigers are No. 2 in about every added ranking, including the Massey Composite, which collects all the rankings.

The alone added Power 5-ish best should be dinged for aing calls adjoin Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pitt.

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It should additionally get a ton of acclaim for arguably accepting baffled a bigger aggregation than anybody abroad in the country has (Michigan).

The numbers don’t accept a bigger acknowledgment for that dichotomy than I do. ESPN’s Backbone of Record, which seeks to assumption how the boilerplate top-25 aggregation would’ve handled a schedule, ranks them No. 1. CPI has them No. 3. Aaaand Resume S&P , which tries to assumption how a Playoff aggregation would’ve handled a schedule, has them all the way bottomward at No. 17.

The uptake: the Irish accept baffled an absorbing account of teams, but accept rarely played all that impressively in accomplishing so.

Do you adopt to go by who you’ve played or how you’ve played?

LSU’s gone 4-1 adjoin teams that were ranked at kickoff. The board does not affliction about area a aggregation acclimated to be ranked, but still, the Tigers rank No. 2 in CPI and Backbone of Record.

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Going by how they’ve played, though? LSU is No. 15 in S&P , acceptation that arrangement — which tends to exhausted Vegas — would aces 14 added teams to exhausted the Tigers on a aloof acreage appropriate now.

Michigan, meanwhile, is No. 4 in S&P and no lower than No. 7 in any added metric cited here.

In the past, the committee’s fabricated hasty calls in anniversary direction, so I could see this either way. If I had to bet, I’d assumption Michigan at No. 4.

Excuse the vagueness, but we accept a log jam. There’s a case to put this agglomeration in about any order.

I anticipate the board should rank Oklahoma No. 6 and Texas No. 11, again not attending at amusing media for a week. S&P has OU at No. 3 and Texas at No. 38. These teams accept played too abounding amateur this year to abject the absolute accommodation on aloof one aing result.

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But I accept no clue what the board would absolutely do with this group.

You can mostly aloof use some admixture of the rankings cited in actuality for a apart estimate. The Massey Composite is apparently the best distinct cardinal for that purpose.

The aforementioned as aftermost week. The AP Poll is still underrating the Hawkeyes (No. 18), admitting them abacus a 23-0 annihilation of Maryland (the characterless aggregation that exhausted Texas, icymi). They’re No. 9 in the Massey Composite and No. 11 in Resume S&P .

A win over Penn State aing weekend would assuredly t the pollsters’ attention, but if the board were baronial teams this week, I affiance Iowa would be college than No. 18.

Last week, I had Oregon in this spot. The Ducks again absent to a lower-ranked aggregation by two touchdowns.

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As for UCF, they’re not absolutely as absorbing as they were a year ago, back this armpit might’ve been the aboriginal civic articulation to authoritatively alarm them acutely underrated. They’d deserve a Backup QB Mulligan for their adequate win over ECU in Anniversary 8, but a starting baronial in the mid-teens would be added condonable than it was aftermost time. The Knights are No. 16 in the Massey Composite.

I abundantly accede with Kirk Herbstreit, who fabricated a case on GameDay (partially application S&P ) that the 2018 New Year’s Six chase shouldn’t yet be advised The UCF Story: A Story Entirely About UCF.

I’ll amend this already added afore then.

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